Manuscript Abstract

MODELING THE DYNAMIC IMPACT OF ECONOMIC FACTORS ON POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION IN EGYPT
Ahmed A Mashaal, Gamal Eldin A. M. Ibrahim, Fatma Mabrouk

Ahmed A. Mashaal1’* Gamal A. M. Ibrahim2 and Fatma Mabrouk3

1Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, P.O. Box 52571, Buraydah, Qassim, Saudi Arabia.

2Department of Economic and Social Studies, Desert Research Center, Egypt.

3Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia.

Corresponding Author: dr.mashaal@gmail.com
Page Number(s): 766-780
Published Online First: February 14, 2026
Publication Date: May 05, 2026
ABSTRACT

The present paper examines key economic determinants affecting levels of commercial broiler (poultry) production using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to estimate short- and long-run effects on a sample data from 1995 to 2023, constraints that would limit the possibility for achieving full self-sufficiency or increased per capita availability, as well as identifying major challenges facing commercial broiler poultry sector in Egypt. The results show that there are economic factors affecting potential of self-sufficiency. The results of the study using the autoregressive distributed lag method over the period (1995-2023) indicated that there is a statistically significant positive relationship in the short term between the price of poultry in the current year and the quantity of broiler poultry production in the current year, and a statistically significant negative relationship between poultry investment in the previous year and the amount of broiler poultry production in the current year, and a statistically significant negative relationship between the inflation rate in the previous year and the quantity of broiler poultry production in the current year.This was due to the value of the error correction coefficient (ECt-1) which showed that the imbalance in the quantity of poultry meat produced could be corrected within the short term but the balance achieved in the long term within a period of less than two years. The long-term results showed a statistically significant negative relationship between the price of feed in the previous year and the quantity of broiler production in the current year, and a statistically significant negative relationship between the real per capita income in the last year and the amount of broiler production in the current year. The study recommends increasing investments in the poultry sector, as a 1% increase in investment leads to a long-term increase in broiler production of approximately 0.625%. The study also recommends expanding the application of inflation-control policies, as a 1% increase in inflation leads to decreases in broiler production of approximately 0.107% and 0.274% in the short- and long-term, respectively.

Keywords: Poultry meat, Poultry investment, Inflation rate, Self-sufficiency, ARDL
Open Access: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).


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