Manuscript Abstract

PRICE ESTIMATION OF SELECTED GRAINS PRODUCTS BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN TÜRKİYE
Abdulkadir Keskin, Irfan Ersin, Abdulkadir Atalan

A. Keskin¹*, I. Ersin², A. Atalan³

¹ Faculty of political sciences, Istanbul Medeniyet University, Istanbul, Turkey,,
² Vocational School of Social Sciences, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey,,
³ Industrial Engineering Department, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey,

Page Number(s): 1290-1302
Published Online First: September 23, 2024
Publication Date: October 22, 2024
ABSTRACT

This study aims to estimate the price fluctuations of essential grain products, namely bread wheat (Triticum aestivum), durum wheat (Triticum durum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and corn (Zea mays), in Türkiye using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Using data from January 2, 2020, to January 10, 2023, the study employs algorithms such as random forest (RF), neural network (NN), support vector machine (SVM), and linear regression (LR). Independent variables include oil prices, currency exchange rates, and grain production volumes. The random forest (RF) algorithm provided the best results with the highest R² values, while NN and LR showed relatively lower performance. The study highlights the significant impact of production and consumption volumes on grain prices and underscores the importance of ML algorithms in predicting these prices amidst changing conditions. Investments in agricultural technologies should be increased to improve data collection and analysis processes, as this is crucial for preventing price fluctuations in the agricultural sector. 

Keywords: Agricultural products; grains; durum wheat; bread wheat; corn; barley; machine learning algorithms; price estimation
Open Access: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).


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