IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND PRODUCTIVITY: AN EVIDENCE FROM PUNJAB PROVINCE OF PAKISTAN
1A. S. Kayani, 2M. Muddassir, 1M. W. Khalid and 1A. H. Shah
1Department of Economics, Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan
2Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Society, College of Food and Agricultural Sciences, King Saud University, P.O.Box 2454, Riyadh 11451, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Corresponding Author: firstname.lastname@example.org; email@example.com
The recent change in climate has affected the global agricultural land productivity. In the current agrarian economy of Pakistan, climate change is becoming the burning issue. The change in temperature and rainfall patterns has become very threatening factor in the crop sector of the arid zone. The study undertaken carries an empirical investigation to estimate the impacts of climate change on the agricultural land productivity of Province Punjab, Pakistan. Auto Regressive Distributed Model has employed for this purpose. Time series data from 1985 to 2015 has been used in the research undertaken. The estimation of the study confirmed that a rise in average temperature and increase in average rainfall along with two non-climatic variables, i.e. fertilizer and credit disperse are affecting the agricultural land productivity significantly. Hence, it is critical to formulate the policy measures to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural land productivity. Plant breeders should focus on the heat resistant seed varieties to mitigate the effect of increasing average temperatures and drought resistant to bear the water shortage because of disturbances in rain patterns in Province Punjab, Pakistan.
Keywords: Agriculture, average temperature, average rainfall, change in climate and land productivity, Punjab.