GLOBAL GOAT MEAT PRODUCTION: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CONCENTRATION TRENDS IN LEADING COUNTRIES - Ahmet Semih UZUNDUMLU; DUYGU TOSUN; GÜLSÜM DEMIR (Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2026)
The main objective of this study is to estimate goat meat production for 2025–2030 including the five largest producing countries, the total production of all other countries and the world production. Besides this main goal, it also tries to compare the share of world production in the 10-year intervals in the top 5 producing countries with the one in the next 6 years. These objectives were pursued using FAOSTAT data on goat meat production over the 64 years from 1961 to 2024. In the study ARIMA model was used for the data without breaks and the ARIMAX model was used for the data with breaks. The best models were determined by AIC, BIC, model forecast deviations, residual normality, correlation, and white noise controls for the years 2019-2024 to select the best forecasting models. In addition, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and the 5-country concentration (CR5) were applied to identify the concentration of goat meat production across countries. The market share of the major producers has been steadily increasing. The combined production of the three first countries (China, India, and Pakistan) increased from about 52% in the 1990s to 58.48% in the 2010s and had its peak of 1.75% between 2021 and 2024. In the same period, the top five countries, which included Nigeria and Bangladesh in fourth and fifth place respectively, accounted for 68.84% of the world’s production. Moreover, the ARIMA and ARIMAX estimations indicate that the production of these five leading countries will be 8.37 million tons per year on average during 2025-2030, accounting for about 70% of the total production in the world. Major goat producers in the industry should focus on breeding climate-resilient goats and increasing meat production using modern techniques to be competitive at the global level. Producers can achieve medium- and long-term objectives through comprehensive training and sustainable export strategies. Medium- and long-term targets will be achieved through intensive training and a permanent export strategy.
Keywords: journal article; Concentration Ratio (CR5); Environmentally Friendly; Forecasting Criteria; Small Ruminant Meat Production; Sustainable Livestock; Time Series Analysis