VISION 2030 AND THE FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT IN EGYPT - Moataz Eliw; Ehdaa A. M. Thabet; Fatma Mabrouk; Ahmed A. Mashaal (Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2025)
This research analyzed the development, efficiency, and determinants of national and agricultural investment in Egypt over the period from 2005 to 2023. It focused on examining trends in public and private national investment, the contribution of agricultural investment to the national economy, and the key factors that influenced both the volume and efficiency of agricultural investment. The primary goals were to identify investment growth patterns, assess agricultural investment efficiency in terms of capital intensity and returns, and evaluate how various economic and agricultural variables affected investment levels. The study employed descriptive statistics to analyze investment trends over time and utilized regression analysis, including linear, multiple, and double-logarithmic models, to determine the factors that drove agricultural investment volume. The analysis was based on time-series data from official Egyptian economic sources covering 19 years (2005–2023). Key performance indicators such as the agricultural investment rate, return on investment, localization coefficient, and capital intensification factor were calculated to evaluate investment efficiency. Results indicated a strong and consistent growth trend in national investment, with total national investment increasing annually by approximately 12.5%. Public national investment grew at an average rate of 14.9% per year, while agricultural investment showed a robust average annual growth rate of 16.23%. Although agricultural investment’s contribution to GDP remained modest, it steadily increased, highlighting the sector’s growing economic importance. Regarding efficiency, agricultural investment demonstrated moderate profitability, with returns generally above one. However, the sector remained capital-intensive, as evidenced by capital intensification factors exceeding unity. The localization coefficient below one suggested spatial efficiency in investment distribution. A slight decline in returns over time pointed to potential challenges in project selection or economic conditions. Regression results revealed that agricultural labor, loans, and net agricultural income significantly and positively influenced investment levels. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the performance and constraints of agricultural investment in Egypt, offering policy insights to enhance investment efficiency and align agricultural growth with the goals of Vision 2030.
Keywords: journal article; Vision 2030; Agricultural Development; National Investment; Investment Efficiency; Agricultural Sector; Egypt