ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION OF EXCHANGE RATE AND DIESEL PRICES ON FISH PRICES IN TÜRKİYE - Nur ERTEK TOSUN (Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2025)
The global demand for animal protein has increased due to accelerated development, economic growth, population expansion, and improved dietary preferences. However, this rising demand poses significant threats to economic stability and food security. Price increases also impact the consumption of fish products, which are an essential source of animal protein for human health. This study aims to analyze the effects of fluctuations in diesel prices and exchange rates on fish prices in Türkiye and to measure how fish prices respond to both negative and positive market shocks. The analysis was conducted using the NARDL model to examine price transmission among variables from 1994 to 2021. The findings reveal an asymmetric relationship between the variables and highlight the influence of shocks on overall fish prices. While exchange rate fluctuations and changes in fuel prices significantly affect fish prices in the long term, the lagged values of these variables play a critical role in the short term. In the long term, a 1% change in positive exchange rate shocks causes a 12% increase in fish prices while a similar change in negative shocks results in a 14% increase. Understanding price transmission is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of fisheries policies both in the short and long term.
Keywords: journal article; Asymmetric price transmission; Fish prices; NARDL; Time series