MEAT PRICE HIKES AND IT`S FORECASTING IN PAKISTAN - R. M. Ayyub; M. Bilal; M. Ahmed (Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 2011)
Meat production is one of the major activities of Pakistani Livestock Sector. Currently owing to changing lifestyle and awareness regarding Balanced diet, meat demand has drastically increased. On the other hand increasing Pakistani meat export has reduced the supply of meat for local Pakistani consumers. This scenario has led to an exponential increase in meat prices during last decades and this trend is continuously in progress. Present study is an attempt leading to empirical modeling and forecasting of meat production and meat price index to access it`s future implications upto the year 2020. The data used in this study was collected from secondary sources such as Economic Survey of Pakistan, Federal Bureau of Statistics, FAO and MinFAL sources etc. Auto regressive integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied on the collected data. Various diagnostic checks were carried out for analysis of data which showed that ARIMA (4,2,4) is an appropriate model for the time series data of meat production and price index from the year 1991 to 2008. Further diagnostic checks using NPar test exhibited that upto the year 2020; there will be a significant increase in the price index of meat. The study suggests the need for immediate policy measures and actions from the policy parlors of Pakistan.
Keywords: journal article; ARIMA model; Meat prices; Pakistan