Article Abstract

Volume 32, No. (1), 2022 (February)
FORECASTING TOMATO PRODUCTION UNDER CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN PAKISTAN
M. K. Bashir, A. U. Malik, M. U. Farrukh, S. Hameed, M. A. Kamran, and K. Ziaf

M. K. Bashir1*, A. U. Malik2, M. U. Farrukh1, S. Hameed1, M. A. Kamran3,4 and K. Ziaf2

1 Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Institute of Horticultural Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

3 US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Agriculture and Food Security, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology (NIAB), Faisalabad, Pakistan

Corresponding Author: khalid450@uaf.edu.pk
Page Number(s): 218-228
Published Online First: June 14, 2021
Publication Date: January 07, 2022
ABSTRACT

Pakistan contributes the lowest to per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but is among the five worst affected countries in the world. This paper forecasts tomato production under climate variability in Pakistan. Time series data were collected from Government of Pakistan (GOP), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank's online sources. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were applied to analyze the data. For quantitative analyses, dynamic forecasting techniques were used, and qualitative analyses were carried out using the rapid appraisal method. The results concluded that temperature shocks have adverse dynamics on tomato production as well as prices. An ambiguous role of rainfall was found i.e., in some areas it had positive impact while in other areas had negative impacts. Several issues were identified including limited area of production, low yields, pests and disease stresses, labor shortage, poor water management and lack of modern information. It is suggested that value chain industry of tomato must be developed in tomato growing areas Furthermore, the access of farmers to reliable information about weather dynamics must be ensured.

Keywords: Climate variability, dynamic forecasting, Pakistan, price volatility, tomato production

Indexing

Web of Science (SCIE)

SCOPUS (Q3)

Status

Journal Metrics

Journal Impact Factor: 0.5 | (JCR Year: 2025) | Cite Score: 1.3

HEC Category: W

Current

ISSN Details

Print ISSN: 1018-7081

Electronic ISSN: 2309-8694

Verified
Search the Journal

Use the fields below to search for articles by Title, Author, or Keywords.