Article Abstract

Volume 36, No. (4), 2026 (August)
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN EGYPT USING ARDL APPROACH
Ayatullah Mazen, Fatma Mabrouk, Ahmed A. Mashaal, Wafaa A. B. Eid, Moataz Eliw

Ayatullah Mazen1, Fatma Mabrouk2, Ahmed A. Mashaal3, Wafaa A. B. Eid4 and Moataz Eliw 1,5*

 1College of Business, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Post code: 223003, China.

2Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia.

3Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, P.O. Box 52571, Buraydah, Qassim, Saudi Arabia.

4Senior Researchers, Central Laboratory for Design and Statistical Analysis Research, Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Egypt.

5Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Society, Faculty of Agriculture, Beni-Suef University, P.O. Box 62521, Egypt

Corresponding Author: moatazeliw@agr.bsu.edu.eg
Published Online First: May 01, 2026
ABSTRACT

The research issue is to gauge the effect of climate change on the economic performance of Egypt and which environmental factors have the greatest restrictive effect on growth. This paper examines how climate change will affect economic growth in Egypt between 1990 and 2024, through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The primary measure of economic performance is the GDP per capita, which is analyzed in connection with some major climate variables carbon dioxide emissions, precipitation, and average temperature and other economic variables that include investment, arable land, and natural resource rents. The ARDL model is especially the right tool to use in this analysis because it allows variables that used to be integrated into a time series of differing order, which is prevalent in climatic and economic time series. The findings demonstrate that there are evident differences in short-run and long-run effects. The effect of increasing temperatures in the short run is a decline in the economic output indicating a productivity loss associated with heat in agriculture and labor intensive sectors. The role of precipitation in economic growth in both long and short is always positive because it underlines that the availability of water is a key limiting factor on the development of Egypt. The relationship between carbon dioxide outputs and long-run economic growth is positive and significant, which demonstrates the fact that Egypt remains relying on energy-intensive production. Growth is also supported by arable land, but recent trends have indicated that there is slowdown in land expansion. The error correction process implies quite rapid adaptation to long-run equilibrium, and the diagnostic tests prove the stability of the model estimated. The results show that there is increasing conflict between economic development in the short term and the climate threat in the long term. The shrinking water supply and the mounting climatic stress imply that the growth will be necessary to be sustained with the help of immediate policy actions, especially in the area of water management, energy conversion, and climate adjustments.

Keywords: Climate change, Economic growth, Water scarcity, ARDL model, CO₂ emissions, Egypt
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Cite Score: 1.3

JCR Year: 2025

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Web of Science (SCIE)

SCOPUS (Q3)

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Journal Impact Factor: 0.5

HEC Category: W

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Print ISSN: 1018-7081

Electronic ISSN: 2309-8694

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